WPL 2024 scenarios: A three-horse race for third place pits the Giants, Warriors, and RCB

Without a question, RCB has the easiest route to the playoffs. On Tuesday night, the other two teams will be rooting for them to lose badly.
Three teams are still in the running for a spot in the playoffs: Royal Challengers Bangalore, UP Warriorz, and Gujarat Giants. Two league games are remaining. The reigning champion Mumbai Indians and last year's finalists Delhi Capitals are certain to land in the top two, but here's how things stack up for that valuable third spot in the standings.

If Royal Challengers defeat Mumbai, will they advance?
The Royal Challengers control their own destiny; a victory over Mumbai on Tuesday will guarantee a top-three finish. They will surpass Warriorz, who have six points from their league games thus far, and Gujarat Giants, who can only finish with six points, by moving up to eight points.
If Mumbai defeats the Royal Challengers, are they eliminated?
Losing to Mumbai does not mean that the Royal Challengers will not be among the top three. They will remain ahead of Warriorz (NRR -0.371) thanks to their very robust net run rate (NRR) of 0.027 unless they are trailing by about 60 runs in a pursuing situation or have seven overs remaining in a defending situation.
For instance, if Mumbai scores 175 batting first, Royal Challengers would need to score at least 115 to stay ahead of Warriorz. If Royal Challengers choose to bat first, their task would be to force Mumbai's chase into the fourteenth over.
So if Royal Challengers lose by a significant enough margin, Warriorz advance?
UP If Royal Challengers lose by a significant enough margin to drop below them in NRR, Warriorz will take third position. That won't, however, guarantee Warriorz's spot in the playoffs because the Giants might pass them on NRR if they win the Capitals' last league game handily. The Giants have the lowest net rating of any team in the points standings right now, at -0.873.

The Giants would need to win by 54 to 61 runs, depending on their overall score: if they score 120, they should win by 54 runs, and if they score 200, they should win by 61 runs. Giants must run their target down in about 45 balls if they are chasing (between 43 and 47 balls based on the target).

Is Giants' NRR enough to surpass Royal Challengers'?
We are aware of the steps Royal Challengers must take to stay above Warriorz in NRR (see above), but Giants pose a minimal threat in this regard as well. If the Giants win by roughly 57 runs or with about 45 balls remaining, they might surpass both Warriors and Royal Challengers.
Giants will thus be hoping that Royal Challengers fall badly on Tuesday, much like Warriorz did. Giants face a more difficult task due to Royal Challengers' smaller margin of defeat. For background, the Giants have won four games throughout two WPL seasons with the largest winning margin of 19 runs. The Giants, on the other hand, have the advantage of playing last, so they will know exactly what to do.